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In 2023 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared endemic, yet hospital admissions have persisted and risen within populations at high and moderate risk of developing severe disease, which include those of older age, and those with co-morbidities. Antiviral treatments, currently only available for high-risk individuals, play an important role in preventing severe disease and hospitalisation within this subpopulation.
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine prevents millions of clinical malaria cases in children younger than 5 years in Africa's Sahel region. However, Plasmodium falciparum parasites partially resistant to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (with quintuple mutations) potentially threaten the protective effectiveness of SMC. We evaluated the spread of quintuple-mutant parasites and the clinical consequences.
Individual-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly use network structures to represent human interactions. Network structures can vary in complexity, from single-layered with homogeneous mixing to multi-layered with clustering and layer-specific contact weights. Here we assessed policy-relevant consequences of network choice by simulating different network structures within an established individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.
We help shape how the world responds to infectious diseases: guiding vaccine and treatment development, and advising on public health measures to control and eliminate disease. Our mathematical models capture how diseases spread, how severe infections are, and how childhood exposure shapes health across a lifetime.
In this project, our team provides malaria vaccine impact predictions to inform vaccine investment strategies for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and their partners.
New malaria vaccine development builds on groundbreaking recommendations and roll-out of two approved pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEVs); RTS,S/AS01 and R21/Matrix-M. Whilst these vaccines are effective in reducing childhood malaria within yearly routine immunization programs or seasonal vaccination, there is little evidence on how different PEV efficacies, durations of protection, and spacing between doses influence the potential to avert uncomplicated and severe childhood malaria.
The rising burden of mosquito-borne diseases in Europe extends beyond urban areas, encompassing rural and semi-urban regions near managed and natural wetlands evidenced by recent outbreaks of Usutu and West Nile viruses. While wetland management policies focus on biodiversity and ecosystem services, few studies explore the impact on mosquito vectors.
In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health.
The clinical development of novel vaccines, injectable therapeutics, and oral chemoprevention drugs has the potential to deliver significant advancements in the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. These innovations could support regions in accelerating malaria control, transforming existing intervention packages by supplementing interventions with imperfect effectiveness or offering an entirely new tool.
Melissa Penny PhD, PD, BSc (Hons) Professor Fiona Stanley Chair in Child Health Research melissa.penny@thekids.org.au Professor Fiona Stanley Chair